Just days before the SpaceX IPO: What does it mean for markets?

Written by Jai Malhi
June 9, 2026

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This is set to be a near-term positive, while any tech-rebalancing fears are for 2027, rather than now.

The IPO is grabbing attention for five reasons:

1. Historic size (largest IPO ever at $75bn and valuation of $1.75trn)
2. Fast-tracked benchmark inclusion (15 days for Nasdaq, 5 for Russell, but 6 months for S&P)
3. Retail interest (direct access for retail investors)
4. Links with AI
5. Read across for potential Anthropic and Open AI IPOs later this year

 In the short term, supplies for SpaceX stock will be limited (chart below) given significant private holdings and the obvious push to grab retail interest. This should increase near-term demand for any vehicle offering SpaceX exposure: ETFs like NASA, XOVR, QQQ (we’re watching these on VandaTrack, see chart), and MFs with existing private holdings.

If the IPO goes well, especially given retail enthusiasm, it could provide a blueprint for Anthropic and Open AI when they come to market.

Fast-track inclusion in indices is getting a lot of headlines, but this misses the point. Free-float is small and so will index weights. SPCX will likely be just 0.7% of the Nasdaq 100, and it won’t join the S&P 500 for at least 6 months. Insider lock-ups also mean its weight in indices won’t even touch the megacaps, even when it is included in the S&P (chart below).

Longer-term, inclusion (and its weight) matters because it creates forced passive buying. Our initial estimate is that passive buying will only be $5bn initially from Nasdaq-linked passive funds. S&P inclusion matters more given the AUM of funds tracking the S&P is closer to $11trn, which could generate $80bn of passive buying of SPCX. But this is still not a problem for now, with the weight in the S&P at year-end still likely to be small (likely <1%), pushing out any rebalancing concerns.

Bottom line: SpaceX is likely to be near-term support for equity flows, and could invigorate retail demand for stocks. This means it is hard to short tech, despite elevated expectations and positioning.

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