
French debt looks unsustainable. The flows don't say crisis. Yet.
France’s debt outlook is deteriorating, but foreign demand for OATs remains strong. Chris Marsh examines the risks and what could trigger a funding crisis.
What our strategists are reading in the positioning and flow data, written for a 0–3 months horizon, not for an archive.
152 of 152 articles

Another RBA hike looks increasingly likely, but weakening business conditions and diverging Australia–New Zealand data could matter more for rates and AUD/NZD.

Vanda to complete the integration of Exante Data, which will become Vanda Macro Intelligence from 1 October, bringing macro, positioning and flow data, analytics and insights together under one brand and platform.

Global yields are pushing higher as CTA rates shorts hit record levels. Vanda looks beyond the fiscal narrative at what could drive the next move.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech may matter less for the next rate move and more for the Fed’s reaction function, inflation framework and market outlook.

Was Vanda's pre-earnings call on Nvidia correct? See how subdued options pricing and light positioning set up the post-earnings rally, and what it means for semis.

Palantir surged nearly 30% despite record retail selling. VandaTrack reveals how tactical retail profit-taking met institutional and systematic demand.

The setup for US equities is becoming more nuanced: AI leadership is being tested, positioning is still unwinding, rates are approaching important levels again, and retail behaviour is becoming harder to read.

VandaTrack retail investor flow data is now available on Snowflake Marketplace, giving institutional investors easier access to US equities retail trading activity for research, modelling, risk management and market sentiment analysis.

Warsh’s first FOMC meeting kept rate hikes on the table, as sticky inflation, AI price pressures and uncertain energy relief point to a more hawkish Fed path.

The Magnificent 7 is losing relevance as AI accelerates. Meet the FAB 10 – a new group of companies shaping the next phase of market performance.

Inflation did not shock markets, but Vanda warns it is too early to call the bottom as flow risks, crowded AI trades and IPO liquidity pressures remain.

Explore what the SpaceX IPO could mean for markets, retail flows, ETF proxy positioning, index inclusion and the next wave of major tech IPOs.

Key insights from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the Exante Data 10th Anniversary Conference on fiscal policy, geopolitics, oil markets, tariffs, and the future of the US dollar amid global “polycrisis.

Key insights from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent at the Exante Data 10th Anniversary Conference on fiscal policy, geopolitics, oil markets, tariffs, and the future of the US dollar amid global “polycrisis.

Retail Is Quietly Rotating Into Europe & Japan Retail flows are starting to broaden beyond the US. As shown in the chart above, the iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF (IEUR) just recorded its largest daily retail inflow since 2014. Similar acceleration is visible in Japan-focused ETFs. What makes this notable is not the headline level of retail activity, which remains moderate, but the shift in composition. After years of concentrated US exposure, incremental retail capital is now moving into international equities.

Vanda and Exante Data Combine in Strategic Merger

Reuters highlighted a shift in Vanda Research retail flow data showing weaker dip buying. Softer retail demand increases equity sensitivity to institutional positioning at a time when macro signals are mixed. Learn why this behavioural change matters for market dynamics into year end.

A new study using VandaTrack retail data, co-authored by economists from the Federal Reserve Board and top universities, reveals that higher retail participation supports market resilience while institutional positioning amplifies crashes.

Vanda’s intra-day FX option flow data shows the first meaningful uptick in EUR/USD optionality since early October, with clear downside hedging bias as put demand accelerates below 1.15.

After Friday’s sell-off, retail investors once again stepped in to buy weakness. Our data shows the highest day of net retail buying since the Liberation Day episode, highlighting retail’s continued resilience even as institutional positioning weakens.

Discover how Vanda’s three-pillar tactical framework — positioning, high-frequency macro data, and catalysts — identified the Delta Airlines earnings rally before it happened. Learn how our data-driven approach helps investors anticipate market reactions rather than explain them after the fact.

Vanda’s US equity positioning indicator signals rising sell-off risk as positioning nears extreme levels. Why crowded markets matter for investors.

US equity positioning has crossed 1.25 SD a level where left-tail risks historically rise. Learn why positioning, not the Fed or growth, is the biggest risk to equities right now.

FX markets move fast. Until now, positioning data hasn’t. Most positioning datasets are lagged and noisy, revealing shifts only after prices have already moved. This makes it difficult for portfolio managers, strategists, and quant teams to act with conviction.

Discover Vanda’s five-pillar tactical macro framework for US 10Y yields and G10 fixed income. A positioning-first approach that helps investors anticipate market moves, avoid consensus traps, and sharpen timing.

Vanda was featured on CNBC, with our research on positioning and flows highlighted for its role in helping investors better understand market moves.

29 May 2024 Vanda Research Announces New Partner Appointments and Key Promotion Vanda Research is delighted to announce the appointment of Yuchi Duong, Chi

Join Vanda's Summer Webcast Series in June for expert insights on navigating risk and identifying market opportunities. Register now for high-impact, 15-minute sessions.

3 Mar 2025 Understanding retail investor flows is crucial, but cutting through market noise is challenging. VandaTrack delivers daily, actionable insights

18 Dec 2024 Key highlights and takeaways As we step into a pivotal new year, navigating the complex landscape of global markets requires a strategic approa

29 May 2024 Vanda Research Announces New Partner Appointments and Key Promotion Vanda Research is delighted to announce the appointment of Yuchi Duong, Chi

12 Sep 2023 Vanda Research launches VandaXasset data platform, providing delivery of Vanda’s proprietary positioning data. Vanda Research, the global indep

6 Jun 2023 Net purchases of US stocks by retail investors hit almost $1.5bn on May 30 and 31, the highest daily figures in three months, data from VandaTra

30 Sep 2022 Shares of Apple and Tesla are becoming increasingly important to the portfolio performance of retail investors, and any stumble in those two st

20 Sep 2022 Our mission at Vanda is to provide our clients with actionable, responsive and differentiated market insights. With that in mind, I want to upd

4 Aug 2022 Estimates of retail action from VandaTrack show individual investors added more than $386 million in non leveraged energy-focused equity ETFs wi

4 Aug 2022 Retail investor buying has consistently topped the year-to-date average of $1.36 billion over the past five days, with a focus on "classic" tech

23 Jun 2022 This June, Vanda celebrated its 10-year anniversary by taking the whole team down to the South coast of England. Colleagues travelled from all

23 Jun 2022 "They still haven’t reached levels of “capitulation” on par with what was witnessed before stocks turned around in December 2018 and March 2020

26 May 2022 "History taught us that when facing losses of this magnitude retail would have given the first signs of capitulation, but sentiment appears to

8 Apr 2022 We are pleased to announce that Vanda will be donating over US$35,000 to the Ukraine Humanitarian Appeal from the Disaster Emergency Committee.

14 Mar 2022 Vanda will be donating 10% of all new business revenues in the month of March to the Ukraine Humanitarian Appeal from the Disaster Emergency Co

9 Mar 2022 “In the past five days, retail purchased in total $ 7.1 bn worth of US securities,” said Marco Iachini, senior vice president at Vanda. To read

25 Feb 2022 Retail traders are piling into exchange-traded funds based on the VIX — also known as the stock market's fear gauge — while ramping up bets aga

3 Feb 2022 Retail investors have bought stocks every day in 2022, but there are signs of capitulation, said Vanda Research.

13 Jan 2022 Individual investors have been focusing on stocks such as Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) and Apple Inc (AAPL.O), as well as tech-focused and leveraged exch

10 Jan 2022 Individual investors have remained active in the market in 2022, buying a net $3.9 billion of U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds in the firs

10 Jan 2022 "What seems clear is that FAAMG is not a thing anymore, at least not from a retail perspective. The group received very large flows at the star

4 Jan 2022 Vanda Research hires Charlie Pollard into the London sales team. Charlie joins Vanda having spent the previous 18 months at EPFR as a sales exec

17 Dec 2021 Vanda Research announces the promotion of Giacomo Pierantoni to Head of Data. Giacomo has been with Vanda since July 2017, starting as an analy

29 Nov 2021 Friday marked the third largest day of net retail buying since the pandemic began with non-tech single stocks seeing the largest inflows, accor

25 Nov 2021 Advanced Micro Devices Inc., Nvidia Corp. and Apple Inc. are the three stocks most purchased this month by individual investors, according to V

10 Nov 2021 Retail investors bought $448 million in shares of Ford Motor Co and Lucid Group Inc. over the past month, with demand recently surpassing that

13 Oct 2021 The stagflation trade appears to be the only theme that traders have any conviction. For further information about this research publication co

21 Sep 2021 Individual investors bought a total of $1.93 billion worth of assets Monday, the fourth-largest net buying since the start of the pandemic, acc

17 Sep 2021 Although Evergrande’s liquidity issues brought the outperformance of Asian equities to a temporary halt this week, we see clear signs of a shif

14 Sep 2021 In this week's note, we take a closer look at the risks around the German elections later this month (26 Sep) – and highlight the potential sce

7 Sep 2021 In this note, we use the UK economy as a case study to highlight how macro imbalances in the goods and labour markets are likely to mean a more

3 Sep 2021 "The wide differentials in vaccination rates, along with the global growth slowdown, have been the two main reasons why global asset allocators

2 Sep 2021 Eric Liu, Vanda's Head of Research, was invited by BNY Mellon's Global IR Advisory team to speak about addressing the role of the retail investo

2 Sep 2021 Vanda sees diversification but meme-stock mania ‘unlikely’ To read the full artcile click HERE.

10 Feb 2021 Vanda Research launches data service that tracks daily US retail flow. Vanda Research, the global independent tactical macro specialists, today

2 Feb 2021 "Vanda Research's new retail-investor tracker nailed silver and AMC as likely targets for Reddit-driven short-squeeze. These are the 4 stocks it

11 Jan 2021 In this note, we take a look at the potential catalysts that are likely to inject further momentum into ESG-related assets over the coming quar

6 Jan 2021 All the data suggests that the bitcoin rally is no different to any of the large retail-driven stock moves that we’ve been accustomed to in 2021

22 Dec 2020 TAAM: Short equities, short USTs and long USD A few things have triggered our bearish US eq view this month: Positioning has grown materially

13 Nov 2020 Long EM vs US remains one of Vanda’s highest conviction trades. For further information about this research publication contact us at sales@van

10 Nov 2020 We expect yields to continue their ascent due to TY puts being concentrated in the 1% range. For further information about this research public

2 Nov 2020 Florida’s results will be the single most important development for investors to follow on election day. The margin of victory will likely deter

31 Oct 2020 Can investors make money on next week’s election even if they decide not to hold any risk into the event? History suggests that the answer is y

20 Oct 2020 CTAs have closed more than half of their long positions but they’re still far from the outright short levels reached in 2017. For further infor

14 Oct 2020 Our mission at Vanda is to be actionable, responsive and differentiated. With that in mind, I want to update you with some exciting development

26 Sep 2020 Dip buying behaviour from fundamental investors remained anaemic this week, while systematic strategies continued to sell equities. For further

19 Sep 2020 "One thing that appears more or less certain – regardless of how November 3 plays out – is that a contentious electoral process, accusations of

9 Sep 2020 With Robinhood data no longer available we have recently conducted a survey of first-time retail investors based in the US to help our clients m

11 Aug 2020 Following Robinhood's decision to stop publishing data on the number of clients that hold a certain position, we have received a myriad of quer

7 Aug 2020 In this note, we review why systematic positioning & seasonality will increase the probability that yields rise into year-end. For further infor

5 Aug 2020 Without getting overly dramatic, the current environment is starting to feel a bit like the start of the year. Equities continue to lazily drift

30 Jul 2020 With Biden's odds of winning the election sitting at 61%, how much has already been baked into EUR/USD? For further information about this rese
3 Jul 2020 "Boomers and Gen X investors have plenty of dry powder to buy stocks in the next three to six months," said Ben Onatibia, a strategist at Vanda.

19 Jun 2020 Keep an eye on Soybean purchases, after three consecutive weeks when China bought no soybeans from the US, purchases resumed with 66 metric ton

5 Jun 2020 Old-time readers will know that we use a combination of foreign flows and short interest to determine when to overweight EM equities vs. the res
2 Jun 2020 Vanda Research today announced that its partners have appointed Angus Hume as Chief Executive Officer. Angus’ appointment is effective immediate

2 Jun 2020 Following this week’s 5% surge in US equities, we’re recommending investors take some chips off the table. For further information about this re

26 May 2020 We estimate that 60-day vol will fall below 30% by the end of June. That should translate into US$ 170bn worth of equity purchases from CTAs, R
14 May 2020 Hedge funds bought large OTM calls on TSLA one or two days before the weekly expiry with little chances of finishing in the money. However, the

12 May 2020 Oriel Morrison: "These are the only guys I know who have called the market to perfection." Click Here to watch the interview now
7 May 2020 Insitutional investors will try to front-run flows from systematic investors. That should clear an important hurdle for foreign interest in EM t

21 Apr 2020 In the short term, the biggest risk I see is the potential for retail investors to lose their shirts on these oil bets should the Jun20 and Jul

18 Apr 2020 A single event study of the scenario most similar to the current one – the GFC selloff in ’08/’09 – indicates that the SPX bottomed 8.5 weeks b

11 Apr 2020 Main reason we are bullish equities still; investor positioning has barely budged since bottoming three weeks ago. For further information abou

26 Mar 2020 All three of the principle elements of our MERC framework have been satisfied. Momentum stocks have underperformed, retail capitulation has occ

19 Mar 2020 Retail capitulation has been a critical precondition of market bottoming during past equity selloffs, occurring 84% of the time since 2009. For
14 Mar 2020 M.E.R.C - MTUM vs SPX, ETF inflows, Robinhood ownership, Call-to-put ratio, For further information about this research publication contact us

29 Feb 2020 Call-to-put ratio in US equities remains elevated, as a result yet to see full scale equity capitulation. For further information about this re

18 Feb 2020 That’s because output disruptions from the nCoV pandemic aren’t limited to iPhone builds and AirPods purchases. Already we’ve seen Taiwanese ma

13 Feb 2020 We're still cautious risk with positioning in US stocks remains as extremely elevated, at +2.1 SD. For further information about this research

5 Feb 2020 The current SPX trajectory closely mirrors that of 2014, the last time managers were this bullish. For further information about this research p

30 Dec 2019 The US single stock equity call-to-put ratio, perhaps the most reliable positioning indicator we track, finally breached the +1.5 standard devi

17 Dec 2019 Retail client base bought the largest amount of equities in 8 months. For further information about this research publication contact us at sal
10 Dec 2019 Large Conservative majority will push GBP to 1.34. We’d expect GBP/USD to soften given the uncertainty around the EU trade deal in 2020. For fu
19 Nov 2019 Discussing the likelihood of an Equity draw-down as we head into 2020. Click Here to watch the video now

1 Nov 2019 You can now view the 3 month forward return for any given asset when its stretched beyond a particular threshold. Click here to discover more ab

15 Oct 2019 A sustained rise in rates should lead to a rotation out of defensives like utilities and staples and into cyclicals like banks and industrials.

11 Oct 2019 Options markets have turned a lot more bullish, pointing to 1.30 in case of a deal. For further information about this research publication con
8 Oct 2019 We expect risk markets are somewhat closer to bottoming. Before getting properly bullish, though, I’d like to see ... For further information ab
25 Sep 2019 If the ensuing attention on Biden ends up opening the window for Warren to take the lead, Markets won't take kindly to the risk she wins. This
20 Sep 2019 A rebound in the tech cycle would reinforce the recent improvement in macro data and accelerate the cyclical rotation in global risk. For furth
18 Sep 2019 Net-net given the heavy crowding that remains in the long defensives vs short cyclicals trade, the smarter bet at this point is probably to be.
17 Sep 2019 The rally in oil stocks may have just dealt a another blow to the momentum trade that blew up last week. For further information about this res
3 Sep 2019 Street Strategists trim their GBP fair value estimates in the case of a no-deal to.... For further information about this research publication c
27 Aug 2019 Call to put ratio of US single stock volumes fell below -1.5 SD on Friday, a level associated with a strong contrarian signal. In previously, w
22 Aug 2019 But who's "crazy" enough to buy negative yielding debt? The short answer is a combination of foreign investors, insurance companies, vol seller
15 Aug 2019 US Call/put ratio has finally triggered a contrarian signal. For further information about this research publication contact us at sales@vanda-
14 Aug 2019 We're inclined to take a bearish view because the tariff impacted stocks performed inline with the broader index, failing to reverse the large
12 Aug 2019 It’s still too early to buy the dip in equity markets, for 3 big reasons. For further information about this research publication contact us at
7 Aug 2019 By most measures, the market’s reaction to Donald Trump’s latest salvo has been far more bearish than previous trade scares. For further informa
5 Aug 2019 Bigger losses in equity markets as quantitative strategies begin their periodic de-risking process and fundamental investors refrain from buying
19 Jul 2019 On average, companies that have surprised on the upside have outperformed the S&P by 2%, those missing have under-performed by 3%. For further
17 Jul 2019 L/S are more likely to turn long in the event of a positive catalyst like a trade deal, a 50bp cut from the Fed or a synchronized recovery in g
17 Jul 2019 From a data-only perspective, this will be the least justifiable Fed cut of the past 30 years. For further information about this research publ
11 Jul 2019 The most straightforward answer is that the rise in yields hasn't been large enough to hurt equities but put-call gamma inbalance may also be a
9 Jul 2019 Bond investors have been more proactive in hedging downside risk their equity peers - equities stand to lose more from a rapid pop in UST yields
3 Jul 2019 We see upside bias to UST 10Y yields going forward. If the NFP release turns out to be a non-event, the bottom for interest rates should come on
26 Jun 2019 Market pricing in trade sensitive assets is consistent suggests that investors are pricing a delay to tariff hikes and an extension to negotiat

12 Jun 2019 "Markets are betting this is ’98, not ’01 or ’07/’08. In the case of the former, the Fed managed to delay but not stop an impending recession,

11 Jun 2019 Investors are betting on a steepening of the yield curve & What does a deal at G20 mean for global risk? For further information about this res

3 Jun 2019 - Lack of vol causing slow grind downwards in this S&P drawdown. Previous sell offs Vix rose between 10 & 27 in the first 2 weeks of market decl
1 Jun 2019 US equities dropped 2.6% this week, the worst WoW performance since the middle of December. While we remain somewhat constructive on equity risk

23 May 2019 "This time is different - I don't think much is priced in at all" Watch Video
22 May 2019 - Long only managers continued to be net buyers of US equities at the start of this week. - Trade war headlines, like most risks, tend to have
16 May 2019 The 3% gain in US equities over the past three days has prompted many to wonder aloud whether this rebound is sustainable, or if we’re all just
14 May 2019 We estimate that VT funds sold roughly US$62bn in US equities, consistent with a drop in allocations from 95% to 78%. That's roughly 25% of yes
14 May 2019 - Institutional positioning in Chinese equities appears to have washed out. - Foreigners don't move the needle in China. - Retail leverage has
13 May 2019 With the SPX now -3% on the day – the largest daily decline since December 24 – it’s worth asking the question: when does the Trump Put come in
11 May 2019 With tape bombs and tweet storms you can forget about an equity 'melt up'. - Long short may have more room to cut exposure. - Risk of profit ta
9 May 2019 We still see very little upside for US equities. The ugly truth of this week’s price action is that, while Trump’s tweet on Sunday was clearly t
6 May 2019 Absent quant involvement, we are unlikely to see a sudden 10% draw in the SPX like in February and October 2018. For further information about t
2 May 2019 EPS misses continue to get punished heavily but reaction function has grown more constructive over the past week. L/S investors have grown more
2 Apr 2019 Vanda Research today announced the appointment of Eric Liu as Chief Executive Officer. Vanda Securities Pte. Lte., the Singapore-based macro res
30 Jan 2019 "We are very pleased to announce that we have promoted Ben to be Partner of the firm. Ben's tireless commitment to both the firm and to its cli
7 Aug 2018 Vanda adds Chinese and HK Sectors to their current positioning suite, see www.vanda-analytics.com for more details.
11 Apr 2018 Vanda Research's Eric Liu Says We've Seen the Bottom in Equities. Watch Video
26 Feb 2018 Corporate treasuries were the main cause of market recovery Watch video
9 Feb 2018 Vanda Securities launches new video on risk to commemorate the company's 5th anniversary Vanda Securities has launched a new video on how we see
9 Feb 2018 Days of Single-Digit Vol Are Probably Long Gone, Says Eric Liu Watch video
6 Feb 2018 A ‘hammering’ is coming for Treasurys and stocks won’t like it, analyst warns Watch video
17 Jan 2018 Vanda's Ambrose Says U.S. Govt. Shutdown 'Neither Here Nor There for Risk' Watch video

1 Nov 2017 Vanda Securities has launched proprietary data platform InvestorPositioning.com Vanda Securities has launched InvesterPositioning.com, a pre-emi

1 Aug 2017 Vanda Securities opens a branch office in New York City under the legal name of Vanda Research Corp. Vanda Securities opened a branch office in

3 Oct 2016 Vanda Securities opens a branch office in London under the legal name of Vanda Research Ltd. Vanda Securities opened a branch office in London u