The shares rose in overnight trading. So,was Vanda's call correct?
Heading into Nvidia’s earnings report on August 26, VandaTrack data showed:
• Options pricing an unusually subdued post-earnings move
• Light positioning relative to the broader US market
• Retail momentum beginning to build, while overall retail positioning remained undemanding versus history
The setup was clear. Subdued expectations and dry powder if Nvidia delivered.
Revenue reached $96.2 billion, guidance beat expectations, and the shares gained 6.5% overnight, ahead of the US market open. NVDA has held on to its gains since markets opened.
The verdict so far? Directionally right.
The overnight move exceeded the range priced by options markets, and NVDA rose 6.5% overnight, continuing to rise in the early part of the US trading session. So what does this mean for broader semiconductor stocks?
If this initial positive response carries further into the US session, it would reinforce our view that positioning in semiconductors is not a barrier to further gains. The sector is not crowded and, at worst, positioning remains close to neutral.
The upshot is that we see little reason for investors to treat the result as a profit-taking opportunity. This does not resolve every challenge facing broader equities. Elevated yields could still keep investors cautious heading into the typically weaker September period.
The AI trade has cleared its latest hurdle. The next test may come from rates rather than earnings.
That’s the setup Vanda is watching. Follow the moves as they happen on VandaTrack. Compete the form below to request access.